New Year's Predictions
I thought that over the next few days, I might post some New Year's predictions. Some hopeful, others not so much. Just for sh-ts and giggles as they say.
1) Look for the Religious Right to lose a lot of influence within the GOP and look for the religious left to be a lot more vocal (although they do not deserve capital letters just yet). In other words, I think self styled people of faith will start talking a lot more about justice and war than gays and abortion. Call it a transformation from the politics of personal piety to the politics of the collective good. The reasons are legion -- from the resurgence of folks like Jim Wallis to the fact that the three most likely GOP candidates for President in '08 have five divorces and one admitted womanizer among them. I just can't see these guys running on the sanctity of marriage and so on.
2) Look for a change in strategy in our ever popular War on Drugs. Initiatives to repeal the Rockefeller laws in New York and legalize medical marijuana in the West as well as a dissatisfaction with mandatory minimum sentences even among conservatives demonstrate that mainstream America is beginning to rethink our "lock them up" strategy. Also, scientific breakthroughs in the biology of addiction will push drugs from the realm of moral crusade to the realm of public health problem. Moreover, I just don't think the kids are buying the propaganda spread by folks like the Partnership for a Drug Free America.
3) Look for more oversight in media and telecommunications. The rash of news stories about the concentration of media assets in a few hands as well as the delay of the AT&T merger seem to indicate that even the GOP is rethinking its laissez faire attitude toward the concentration of market power. (Two years ago, the merger would have been rubber stamped.) Once again, even the mainstream seems to be concerned that most of our news and information infrastructure is controlled by a group of people that could fit in a good sized conference room. A Democratic Congress will only deepen this trend.
4) Look for Speaker Pelosi to be Hillarized. A woman with her level of success -- particularly a moderately liberal one -- will be the main course of a media frenzy hosted by the conservative shock troops. We are still uncomfortable with powerful women who part with a script drafted by the boys. Don't be surprised if we even hear talk of a lesbian dalliance. I kid you not.
5) Look for a decline in the influence of the most vitriolic right wing commentators. It seems that even their loyal yes men are beginning to question Rush, Savage, O'Reilly and Coulter. You can only flog the same horses for so long and none of these folks show any signs of becoming interesting anytime soon. Their days of reaching beyond the hardcore bigots, reactionaries and assorted mouthbreathers that make up their base are numbered.
6) Look for scientists to become our new heroes. The popularity of science and its practitioners in the popular culture (CSI, Bones, House, Criminal Minds) indicates that we Americans are beginning to favor the men and women who "follow the evidence" rather than "follow their gut." Well publicized spats between the Bush White House and the scientific community about ... everything ... support the notion that we would rather make decisions based on the observations of Galileo than the doctrine of the Catholic Church. Don't call it The Enlightenment II just yet, but look for reason to pick up a few games against faith.
7) Don't look for a decrease in US troops in Iraq anytime soon. While we have finally cleared a hurdle in concluding that things are not going well, the White House will continue to insist that "failure is not an option" and that pulling out of Iraq is like turning over the keys to your summer home to the guys from AlphaTau Omega. Also, while the American people do not like what they see right now, we are far from reckoning with the tragic immorality of our decision. In other words, we are only upset because we are losing. On a practical level, we are a long way from the political context necessary to get other countries meaningfully involved and allow us to gracefully exit the scene.
8) Look for luxury automaker Lexus to shelve its series of truly annoying holiday ads in which overentitled suburban husbands give their graspy wives a luxury car for Christmas ... in full view of the neighbors. The ads will be pulled because consumers are outraged at the sight of such conspicuous consumption and offended at the anachronistic depiction of kept women who go weak in the knees at the sight of something shiny. Ok... I told you some of these would be pure fantasy.
9) Look for Americans to begin questioning who gets what and why. Despite decades of GOP inspired belief that the market provides justice and America is a classless society, more folks are starting to smell a rat. Whether it is shareholder activists questioning the lofty pay packages of CEOs or Lou Dobbs and his (slightly bigoted) crusade on behalf of the middle class, Americans are starting to question how our economy doles out the goodies. Look for the words "distributive justice" to make a comeback on some of your policy wonk blogs.
... more to follow
1) Look for the Religious Right to lose a lot of influence within the GOP and look for the religious left to be a lot more vocal (although they do not deserve capital letters just yet). In other words, I think self styled people of faith will start talking a lot more about justice and war than gays and abortion. Call it a transformation from the politics of personal piety to the politics of the collective good. The reasons are legion -- from the resurgence of folks like Jim Wallis to the fact that the three most likely GOP candidates for President in '08 have five divorces and one admitted womanizer among them. I just can't see these guys running on the sanctity of marriage and so on.
2) Look for a change in strategy in our ever popular War on Drugs. Initiatives to repeal the Rockefeller laws in New York and legalize medical marijuana in the West as well as a dissatisfaction with mandatory minimum sentences even among conservatives demonstrate that mainstream America is beginning to rethink our "lock them up" strategy. Also, scientific breakthroughs in the biology of addiction will push drugs from the realm of moral crusade to the realm of public health problem. Moreover, I just don't think the kids are buying the propaganda spread by folks like the Partnership for a Drug Free America.
3) Look for more oversight in media and telecommunications. The rash of news stories about the concentration of media assets in a few hands as well as the delay of the AT&T merger seem to indicate that even the GOP is rethinking its laissez faire attitude toward the concentration of market power. (Two years ago, the merger would have been rubber stamped.) Once again, even the mainstream seems to be concerned that most of our news and information infrastructure is controlled by a group of people that could fit in a good sized conference room. A Democratic Congress will only deepen this trend.
4) Look for Speaker Pelosi to be Hillarized. A woman with her level of success -- particularly a moderately liberal one -- will be the main course of a media frenzy hosted by the conservative shock troops. We are still uncomfortable with powerful women who part with a script drafted by the boys. Don't be surprised if we even hear talk of a lesbian dalliance. I kid you not.
5) Look for a decline in the influence of the most vitriolic right wing commentators. It seems that even their loyal yes men are beginning to question Rush, Savage, O'Reilly and Coulter. You can only flog the same horses for so long and none of these folks show any signs of becoming interesting anytime soon. Their days of reaching beyond the hardcore bigots, reactionaries and assorted mouthbreathers that make up their base are numbered.
6) Look for scientists to become our new heroes. The popularity of science and its practitioners in the popular culture (CSI, Bones, House, Criminal Minds) indicates that we Americans are beginning to favor the men and women who "follow the evidence" rather than "follow their gut." Well publicized spats between the Bush White House and the scientific community about ... everything ... support the notion that we would rather make decisions based on the observations of Galileo than the doctrine of the Catholic Church. Don't call it The Enlightenment II just yet, but look for reason to pick up a few games against faith.
7) Don't look for a decrease in US troops in Iraq anytime soon. While we have finally cleared a hurdle in concluding that things are not going well, the White House will continue to insist that "failure is not an option" and that pulling out of Iraq is like turning over the keys to your summer home to the guys from AlphaTau Omega. Also, while the American people do not like what they see right now, we are far from reckoning with the tragic immorality of our decision. In other words, we are only upset because we are losing. On a practical level, we are a long way from the political context necessary to get other countries meaningfully involved and allow us to gracefully exit the scene.
8) Look for luxury automaker Lexus to shelve its series of truly annoying holiday ads in which overentitled suburban husbands give their graspy wives a luxury car for Christmas ... in full view of the neighbors. The ads will be pulled because consumers are outraged at the sight of such conspicuous consumption and offended at the anachronistic depiction of kept women who go weak in the knees at the sight of something shiny. Ok... I told you some of these would be pure fantasy.
9) Look for Americans to begin questioning who gets what and why. Despite decades of GOP inspired belief that the market provides justice and America is a classless society, more folks are starting to smell a rat. Whether it is shareholder activists questioning the lofty pay packages of CEOs or Lou Dobbs and his (slightly bigoted) crusade on behalf of the middle class, Americans are starting to question how our economy doles out the goodies. Look for the words "distributive justice" to make a comeback on some of your policy wonk blogs.
... more to follow
posted by Jack Reed at 12:58 PM
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