You Saw it Here First

Right now, while many races are tightening, all the polls seem to indicate that Democrats will retake the House but that the Senate is a longer shot. My own pessimistic prediction -- little change. If the Republicans hold on to the government, here are the reasons why:

Redistricting. In the past eight years the GOP has redrawn many districts to protect their incumbents. These types of structural advantages are hard to overcome no matter how attractive your candidate is, or how bone stupid his or her opponent is.

The Republicans have a superior get out the vote apparatus and have outspent the Democrats on national and local levels. Again, those types of advantages are hard to overcome.

In the last week, the national GOP has been aiming squarely at Christian evangelicals and its base of social conservatives. Many states have gay marriage amendments on the line so these folks are definetley hitting the polls.

As 2000 and 2004 proved, one cannot overestimate the parachiolism and gullibility of the American people. We have not really shined in the last 20 years and many folks are drawn to both the rhetoric of victimology and the siege mentality promoted so effectively by the GOP. "Won't get Fooled Again" was not written with us in mind.