New Year's Predictions

I thought that over the next few days, I might post some New Year's predictions. Some hopeful, others not so much. Just for sh-ts and giggles as they say.

1) Look for the Religious Right to lose a lot of influence within the GOP and look for the religious left to be a lot more vocal (although they do not deserve capital letters just yet). In other words, I think self styled people of faith will start talking a lot more about justice and war than gays and abortion. Call it a transformation from the politics of personal piety to the politics of the collective good. The reasons are legion -- from the resurgence of folks like Jim Wallis to the fact that the three most likely GOP candidates for President in '08 have five divorces and one admitted womanizer among them. I just can't see these guys running on the sanctity of marriage and so on.

2) Look for a change in strategy in our ever popular War on Drugs. Initiatives to repeal the Rockefeller laws in New York and legalize medical marijuana in the West as well as a dissatisfaction with mandatory minimum sentences even among conservatives demonstrate that mainstream America is beginning to rethink our "lock them up" strategy. Also, scientific breakthroughs in the biology of addiction will push drugs from the realm of moral crusade to the realm of public health problem. Moreover, I just don't think the kids are buying the propaganda spread by folks like the Partnership for a Drug Free America.


3) Look for more oversight in media and telecommunications. The rash of news stories about the concentration of media assets in a few hands as well as the delay of the AT&T merger seem to indicate that even the GOP is rethinking its laissez faire attitude toward the concentration of market power. (Two years ago, the merger would have been rubber stamped.) Once again, even the mainstream seems to be concerned that most of our news and information infrastructure is controlled by a group of people that could fit in a good sized conference room. A Democratic Congress will only deepen this trend.

4) Look for Speaker Pelosi to be Hillarized. A woman with her level of success -- particularly a moderately liberal one -- will be the main course of a media frenzy hosted by the conservative shock troops. We are still uncomfortable with powerful women who part with a script drafted by the boys. Don't be surprised if we even hear talk of a lesbian dalliance. I kid you not.

5) Look for a decline in the influence of the most vitriolic right wing commentators. It seems that even their loyal yes men are beginning to question Rush, Savage, O'Reilly and Coulter. You can only flog the same horses for so long and none of these folks show any signs of becoming interesting anytime soon. Their days of reaching beyond the hardcore bigots, reactionaries and assorted mouthbreathers that make up their base are numbered.

6) Look for scientists to become our new heroes. The popularity of science and its practitioners in the popular culture (CSI, Bones, House, Criminal Minds) indicates that we Americans are beginning to favor the men and women who "follow the evidence" rather than "follow their gut." Well publicized spats between the Bush White House and the scientific community about ... everything ... support the notion that we would rather make decisions based on the observations of Galileo than the doctrine of the Catholic Church. Don't call it The Enlightenment II just yet, but look for reason to pick up a few games against faith.

7) Don't look for a decrease in US troops in Iraq anytime soon. While we have finally cleared a hurdle in concluding that things are not going well, the White House will continue to insist that "failure is not an option" and that pulling out of Iraq is like turning over the keys to your summer home to the guys from AlphaTau Omega. Also, while the American people do not like what they see right now, we are far from reckoning with the tragic immorality of our decision. In other words, we are only upset because we are losing. On a practical level, we are a long way from the political context necessary to get other countries meaningfully involved and allow us to gracefully exit the scene.

8) Look for luxury automaker Lexus to shelve its series of truly annoying holiday ads in which overentitled suburban husbands give their graspy wives a luxury car for Christmas ... in full view of the neighbors. The ads will be pulled because consumers are outraged at the sight of such conspicuous consumption and offended at the anachronistic depiction of kept women who go weak in the knees at the sight of something shiny. Ok... I told you some of these would be pure fantasy.

9) Look for Americans to begin questioning who gets what and why. Despite decades of GOP inspired belief that the market provides justice and America is a classless society, more folks are starting to smell a rat. Whether it is shareholder activists questioning the lofty pay packages of CEOs or Lou Dobbs and his (slightly bigoted) crusade on behalf of the middle class, Americans are starting to question how our economy doles out the goodies. Look for the words "distributive justice" to make a comeback on some of your policy wonk blogs.

... more to follow

Christmas is a Time...

On the radio this morning, a self described Christian was bemoaning the fact that the Christ has been removed from Christmas. Given what has transpired in the last two decades of American life, I cannot help but conclude that so - called Christians have ripped the Christ right out of Christian. You reap what you sow fellas.

Dohhhh....

For months now, the President has been telling us that an US exit from Iraq would make that country a headquarters for Al Queda. According to the President, Iraq is teeming with Al Queda fighters just itching to sign long term leases and plant perennials.

Yesterday, the Defense Department issued a report stating that the sectrian militias have a greater presence, and pose a greater threat, than Al Queda in Iraq.

Wrong. Again.

On Iran

I see, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took a loss in last week's Iranian election. It would seem that, with the moderates in Iran reasserting their power, the US may be able to push a diplomatic solution to the current nuclear impasse. These are the types of shifts skilled diplomats exploit. Unfortunately, it appears that we are still in the "we don't talk to anyone we don't like" mode.

Sununu Sez ...

This morning, Sen John Sununu (R. NH) was on the radio talking about the situation in Iraq. He said that he believes Americans understand that Iraq is better off without Saddam Hussein but are "disappointed" that the Iraqis have not made greater progress after the invasion.

Disappointed. The condescending nature of the word is self evident. It is as though the Iraqi people were six year olds that have stubbornly refused to learn their letters or do not properly appreciate the great holiday present we have given them. What a sly and crafty way to shift blame for this mess from us (the invaders) to them (the folks invaded).

Looked at through the prism of reality, Sen Sununu's comments are absurd. We deposed the only government Iraq new for thirty years, got rid of anyone who knew how anything worked, lifted the lid of the Pandora's box of sectarian violence, created a chaotic environment where crime and terrorism could flourish, and destroyed infrastructure throughout the country. And somehow, it is those damn Iraqi's fault for not picking themselves off the mat, applying some NoSwell and rebuilding their country in a form of government completely foreign to them.

It seems likely that the Senator was making a purely political move by trying to deflect blame. On another level -- a level that assumes some sincerity on Sununu's part -- the message is more distressing. It appears that many still believe that we should be thanked for our belligerence, and that the Middle East somehow does not appreciate being the beneficiary of our bloody largesse.

Denial is just not a river in Africa after all.

In Fact, The Opposite Was True....

Anyone who has followed our descent into madness in the Middle East has had occasion to speak these words or their variants at one time or another, particularly with regard to the current Administration's predictions on Iraq. It is very easy to start down the rabbit hole that is our reasoning on Iraq and never come out the evidence of misdealing, fraud and misdirection are so overwhelming. But it is important to recall that this is not the only time in the last twenty years that our prognostications about the world proved to be wrong and the consequences deadly. It is not the only time we have been urged to overlook abuses in order to shore ourselves up against a supposedly greater ideological enemy.

Take the example of the now deceased Jeanne Kirkpatrick, U.N Ambassador under President Ronald Reagan. Author of the "Kirkpatrick Doctrine," Secretary Kirkpatrick argued that the U.S. was perfectly justified in supporting authoritarian regimes throughout the world as long as they were not communist. The reasoning? Authoritarian regimes held the possibility of reform, while communist regimes did not. The Kirkpatrick Doctrine became the chief reason behind our support of regimes such as Pinochet (Chile), Somoza (Nicaragua), Duarte (El Salvador), and Noriega (Panama), The Shah (Iran) and Hussein (Iraq). (Odd that Pinochet and Kirkpatrick, so tied in the lives are now tied in their demise.)

Of course history has proved Ms. Kirkpatrick totally wrong. In the last twenty years communist regimes have liberalised, while brutal dictatorships either remain or had to be removed through civil war or foreign invasion. It seems we overestimated the endurance of communism and underestimated the endurance of right wing authoritarians.

Food for though the next time we are confronted with a call to arms in the "defining ideological" battle of one generation or another .

Victoria's Un Sexy Secret

A few nights ago, Victoria's Secret had a fashion show on one of the networks. Big stars. Big lights. Lots of glam. Leave it to the magic of of American capitalism to remove any trace of sexuality from women's lingerie.

Ahh to The Coveted Position of Insider

I see that Robert Gates passed through his confirmation hearing with nary a scratch. This is the same fellow who had no knowledge of one of the largest constitutional scams in history even though it was being run out of the CIA on his watch. This is the same fellow that failed to get confirmed the when he was anointed to run the CIA a few years later. Now we expect him to turn around the abomination that is Iraq. I think this demonstrates the value of being considered a "Washington Insider." Once the label attaches, your actual performance in government positions will be ignored.

I also notice that Sen. Levin (D Mich) thanked Mr. Gates for his "candor" on Iraq. (Gates admitted that we were losing.) To me, candor usually means speaking the unguarded and unqualified truth even if it is not favorable. Admitting that we are losing in Iraq is not candor -- it is merely stating the obvious.